Off-Topic: MLB Predictions

Opening Day, finally and thankfully, is upon us. So please permit me to wander off-topic just a bit and make some predictions for the upcoming MLB season …

First, the division races (* = predicted Wild Card winner):

AL East

1. Yankees
2. Red Sox*
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

AL Central

1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals

AL West

1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. A’s
4. Mariners

NL East

1. Braves
2. Mets*
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

NL Central

1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Brewers
4. Reds
5. Astros
6. Pirates

NL West

1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks
3. Giants
4. Rockies
5. Padres

World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers

Now, some individual awards. And remember that these are predictions of who will win, not predictions of who should win …

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira, Yankees

AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays

NL MVP: Brian McCann, Braves

NL Cy Young: Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

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7 Comments

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7 responses to “Off-Topic: MLB Predictions

  1. afrankangle

    Interesting picks, but hey … just as much of a chance as the rest of us. Good luck.

    First time here, so I see you too address a variety of topics.

  2. FQ

    Who do you expect to finish with the worst record this year? I’m guessing Nationals.

  3. FQ

    What’s it like to work with Ken Rosenthal?

  4. daynperry

    Worst record … I’ll say the Pirates. Although the Nats could certainly challenge. The Orioles could, too. They’re not a bad team, but the AL East is so brutal.

    Ken … Considering we both write for Fox, my interactions with him have been somewhat limited. But in my experience, he’s a true professional and a true gentleman. He’s very good at what he does, and he’s one of the nicer guys you’ll ever meet.

  5. FQ

    I have no qualms about your picks. I hope the Orioles play well and compete, but you’re right about the bEast.

    It’s nice to know that Rosenthal is as nice as he seems on tv. He seems incredibly happy to be doing the 30 sec bits on Fox baseball.

    You read Baseball Prospectus at all?

  6. grumpy3b

    Hey Dayn,

    Love that you like the Dodgers. No real doubt about the potential offense. Though historically with this group they run somewhere between the ’27 Yankees and the ’71 Mets on any given night.

    My biggest concern with them is the rotation as well as the pen. I love Billz & Kershaw BUUUUT, and you know there is always a big huge but… 😉 Anyway, Kershaw is very hot and cold. Tonight for example he had zero clue where the ball was going when he threw it. I sense he is still in that trying to prove he belongs phase and it could be a very hot and cold season. But maybe by mid-season he’ll come around…or not. hahahaha…40yrs as a Dodger fan sort of makes a guy not want to really trust them as they will break your heart at every opportunity! And ya gotta love ’em for that part.

    The rest of the rotation is very iffy. Kuroda is a durability question mark every time out. I just don’t trust his arm strength is where is should be for the spot he occupies in the rotation. Great stuff but over last season he did show that he was worn out the later part of the 2nd half. Love the guy and would prolly trust him for the first half but the 2nd half worries me.

    Wolf is gonna be Wolf. When he is going good, he’s pretty good but when he stinks, he stinks on ice. He’ll eat innings. After than…??? nothing is written in stone.

    One thing the offense has going for it this year, well two things actually. First and most obvious is a full season of MRam. That is going to be a good thing. He is now getting close to where he would have been right out of ST had he been there from day one. And the team was scoring at a scary rate w/o him hitting big. But, he was on pace at one point for like a 170ish walk season. That showed the kids one needs to give what they give ya. Once he really starts hitting I would rather see him clean-up and ET 3rd and Kemp 5th. Time will tell but for now MRam is not seeing all that many pitches in the strike zone.

    The second thing the offense has this year is Mattingly for a full season. He combined with Reggie Smith have really improved Kemp at the plate. Given he played basically no games at AAA he really is 1-2yrs behind the other guys. So anything he provides now, is pure gravy. Last season he might have K’d around 150+ times, but he also had over 170 hits. Honestly I think that is OK for now. 100 K’s or less would be better but if he gets close to 200 hits every season and starts hitting 25+ HR/yr that is the old definition of a major star in the game. That is the pre-PED era I mean, though who really knows when the PED truly began. For all we know The Babe was using ‘roids (yeah they existed back then).

    But there are some very slump prone hitters in the line-up so, unless the pitching improves a lot and I mean the rotation, the pen looks very good overall now that Broxton has shown he’s actually ready to close. But as with every year as far back as I can remember, the team will only go as far as their rotation will take them. And so far the SP’s are not going very deep into games.

    Sorry for being long winded but I just found your blog and think your picks are actually pretty reasonable depending on how the dice roll.

    I will say that after watching the Astro line-up tonight….they could surprise as I sense they can hit with anyone in the NL on any given night. But they will flame out when SP’s throw 111 pitches by the end of the 6th and have to call on the pen for 3-4 innings every night.

    I agree about the Braves too, they are better than a lot of folks think.

    Now if you really want to take a swing at predictions, do what my buddies and I used to do…along with the predictions include the team records. It’s fun because when my buds and I were young, I noticed there were pretty definite win numbers for each division needed to take the division. For example the old 70s – mid 80s NL West needed 92-95 wins as a rule to actually win the division. We always allowed a margin of error of +/- 5-games (after all that is a 10-game swing in the W/L record.)

    Have enjoyed most of your columns this season…and that is really UNUSUAL for me…hehehehe…keep up the fun looks at the game.

  7. Hey, Grumpy-

    Thanks for your comment. Consistency’s going to be an issue for Kershaw, but I just have a feeling this is his breakout year. He’s ridiculously talented. I agree that Kuroda’s health is a big worry. Dodgers obviously need him to give them at least 150 innings or so. They’ll score runs, though, as you’re aware.

    Yeah, if I’d REALLY gotten serious about it, I’d have done won-loss records. But I’m lazy like that. Right now, I’ll peg the Dodgers for 94 wins. I don’t see a 100-win team in all of baseball this season. Not sure I see a 95-win team in all of baseball this season.

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